{"id":3904,"date":"2014-04-29T06:00:55","date_gmt":"2014-04-28T21:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/?p=3904"},"modified":"2017-04-27T16:39:47","modified_gmt":"2017-04-27T07:39:47","slug":"tutorial-in-biostatistics-multivariable-prognostic-models-issues-in-developing-models-evaluating-assumptions-and-adequacy-and-measuring-and-reducing-errors-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/?p=3904","title":{"rendered":"Tutorial in Biostatistics Multivariable Prognostic Models: Issues in Developing Models, Evaluating Assumptions and Adequacy, and Measuring and Reducing Errors"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"theContentWrap-ccc\"><p>\u3000<em>c<\/em> index \u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u8a73\u7d30\u306a\u8ad6\u6587\u3092\u898b\u3064\u3051\u305f\u306e\u3067\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u306b\u8a33\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3059\uff0e\u592a\u5b57\u3067\u793a\u3057\u305f\u3088\u3046\u306b\uff0c<em>c<\/em> index \u306f\u4e8c\u3064\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u9593\u306e\u5fae\u5c0f\u306a\u5dee\u7570\u3092\u691c\u51fa\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u5411\u3044\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u8003\u6848\u8005\u81ea\u8eab\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u8a18\u8ff0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\uff0eAIC \u306a\u3069\u306e\u4ed6\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u304c\u3088\u308a\u59a5\u5f53\u304b\u3068\u601d\u308f\u308c\u307e\u3059\uff0e<\/p>\n<h1>Tutorial in Biostatistics Multivariable Prognostic Models: Issues in Developing Models, Evaluating Assumptions and Adequacy, and Measuring and Reducing Errors<\/h1>\n<p>Frank E. Harrell Jr, Kerry L. Lee and Daniel B. Mark<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"\/\/www.unt.edu\/rss\/class\/Jon\/MiscDocs\/Harrell_1996.pdf\" title=\"STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, VOL. 15, 361-387 (1996)\" target=\"_blank\">STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, VOL. 15, 361-387 (1996)<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>\u8981\u7d04<\/h2>\n<p>\u3000\u591a\u5909\u91cf\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u6709\u529b\u306a\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u81e8\u5e8a\u8ee2\u5e30\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u3057\u3070\u3057\u3070\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\u624b\u6cd5\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u540d\u7fa9\u5909\u6570\u3068\u9023\u7d9a\u5909\u6570\u3092\u6df7\u5728\u3057\u3066\u7528\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u306b\u89b3\u5bdf\u3055\u308c\u308b\u6253\u5207\u53cd\u5fdc\u3092\u6271\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e\u3057\u304b\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u624b\u6cd5\u306e\u7121\u6279\u5224\u306a\u9069\u7528\u306f\u9069\u5408\u4e0d\u8db3\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u3082\u305f\u3089\u3059\u7d50\u679c\u3068\u306a\u308a\u5f97\u308b\u3070\u304b\u308a\u304b\uff0c\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u5bfe\u8c61\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u4e0d\u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u8ee2\u5e30\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3055\u3089\u306b\u9ad8\u3044\uff0e\u9069\u5408\u4e0d\u8db3\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3084\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u907f\u3051\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\uff0c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u3092\u8a08\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u77e5\u3089\u306d\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u6027\u3092\u8a08\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u6253\u5207\u4f8b\u306e\u3042\u308b\u751f\u5b58\u671f\u9593\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u306f\u56f0\u96e3\u306b\u306a\u308a\u5f97\u308b\uff0e\u6211\u3005\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u751f\u5b58\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u88dc\u6b63\u8a55\u4fa1\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3068\u540c\u3058\u304f\u3089\u3044\u5bb9\u6613\u306b\u89e3\u91c8\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u4e88\u6e2c\u8b58\u5225\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8b70\u8ad6\u3057\u305f\uff0e\u4e21\u8005\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u6b63\u78ba\u6027\u306f\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6cd5\u304b\u30af\u30ed\u30b9\u30d0\u30ea\u30c7\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u6cd5\u3067\u504f\u308a\u306a\u304f\u691c\u8a3c\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3079\u304d\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u524d\u306b\u884c\u308f\u308c\u308b\u3079\u304d\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u6211\u3005\u306f\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u306e\u30cf\u30b6\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u9069\u5408\u4e0d\u8db3\u3084\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u306e\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8b70\u8ad6\u3057\uff0c\u8b70\u8ad6\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304d\u305f\u591a\u304f\u306e\u554f\u984c\u3092\u907f\u3051\u308b 1 \u3064\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u6226\u7565\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u3053\u3067\u8ff0\u3079\u308b\u624b\u6cd5\u306f\u5168\u3066\u306e\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u9069\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u306e 2 \u5024\u306e\u9806\u5e8f\u5c3a\u5ea6\u304b\u3064\u6642\u9593\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u8ee2\u5e30\u306b\u3082\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0eCox \u56de\u5e30\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u524d\u7acb\u817a\u764c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u751f\u5b58\u5206\u6790\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u793a\u3059\uff0e<\/p>\n<h2>1. 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\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u6b7b\u4ea1\u306b\u81f3\u308b\u6642\u9593\u3092\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u305f\u524d\u7acb\u817a\u764c\u306e\u81e8\u5e8a\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<h2>2. \u4e88\u5099\u6bb5\u968e<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>\u6cbb\u7642\u3068\u6cbb\u7642\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u75be\u60a3\u306e\u91cd\u75c7\u5ea6\u3068\u306e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0e\u8efd\u75c7\u306e\u75be\u75c5\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u306f\u5229\u76ca\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u308b\u6a5f\u4f1a\u306b\u4e4f\u3057\u3044\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5e74\u9f62\u3084\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u56e0\u5b50\u304c\u95a2\u4e0e\u3059\u308b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0e\u9ad8\u9f62\u306e\u88ab\u9a13\u8005\u306f\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u56e0\u5b50\u306b\u5f71\u97ff\u3055\u308c\u306b\u304f\u3044\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5e74\u9f62\u3068\u75be\u60a3\u306e\u578b\u306e\u95a2\u4e0e\u3059\u308b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0e\u3042\u308b\u75be\u75c5\u306f\u4e0d\u6cbb\u3067\u3042\u308a\u5e74\u9f62\u306f\u7121\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u4e88\u5f8c\u306f\u540c\u3058\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u6e2c\u5b9a\u4e2d\u306e\u88ab\u9a13\u8005\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u3068\u6e2c\u5b9a\u5024\u3068\u306e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0e\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\uff0c\u904b\u52d5\u8ca0\u8377\u4e2d\u306b\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\uff0c\u5b89\u9759\u6642\u306e\u5de6\u5ba4\u6a5f\u80fd\u306f\u6307\u6a19\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306e\u4fa1\u5024\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u304f\uff0c\u3088\u308a\u5c0f\u3055\u306a\u50be\u659c\u3092\u6301\u3064\u306b\u3059\u304e\u306a\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u66a6\u6642\u9593\u3068\u6cbb\u7642\u6cd5\u3068\u306e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0e\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u306e\u6cbb\u7642\u6cd5\u306f\u9032\u5316\u3057\u305f\u308a\uff0c\u8077\u54e1\u306e\u8a13\u7df4\u306b\u3088\u308a\u305d\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u6539\u5584\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3059\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u75c7\u72b6\u306e\u8cea\u3068\u91cf\u3068\u306e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0e<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>3. \u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u7e2e\u7d04<\/h2>\n<h2>4. \u691c\u8a3c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a\uff1a\u9069\u5408\u4e0d\u8db3\u306e\u78ba\u8a8d<\/h2>\n<h4>4.1. \u7dda\u5f62\u6027\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a<\/h4>\n<h4>4.2. \u52a0\u6cd5\u6027\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a<\/h4>\n<h4>4.3. \u5206\u5e03\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a<\/h4>\n<h2>5. \u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u5b9a\u91cf<\/h2>\n<p>\u3000\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u6e2c\u5b9a\u306b\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3068\u3082\u4e09\u3064\u306e\u7528\u9014\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u75be\u75c5\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3084\u81e8\u5e8a\u8ee2\u5e30\u306e\u3042\u308b\u88ab\u9a13\u8005\u3092\u540c\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3084\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30fc\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0\u306b\u7528\u3044\u308b\u6307\u6a19\u3084\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6709\u7528\u6027\u306e\u5b9a\u91cf\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u4e0e\u3048\u3089\u308c\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u3084\u9069\u5408\u4e0d\u8db3\u306e\u78ba\u8a8d\uff0e\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u3068\u306f\u30ce\u30a4\u30ba\u306b\u9069\u5408\u3057\u305f\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u56de\u5e30\u4fc2\u6570\u304c\u4e0d\u5b89\u5b9a\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u9069\u5408\u4e0d\u8db3\u3068\u306f\u4e0d\u9069\u5207\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u6307\u5b9a\u3084\u4e88\u6e2c\u56e0\u5b50\u306e\u6b20\u5982\uff0c\u30a2\u30f3\u30c0\u30fc\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u66f4\u306b\u5f8c\u8ff0\u3059\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u7af6\u5408\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3084\u7af6\u5408\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u30e9\u30f3\u30af\u4ed8\u3051\u3059\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u3000\u4e0b\u8a18\u3067\u8b70\u8ad6\u3059\u308b\u6e2c\u5b9a\u6cd5\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u958b\u767a\u306b\u7528\u3044\u305f\u306e\u3068\u540c\u3058\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3092\u7528\u3044\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u306b\u9069\u7528\u3067\u304d\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u3057\u304b\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\uff0c\u3053\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u6cd5\u306f\u6ec5\u591a\u306b\u5bfe\u8c61\u3068\u306f\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\uff0c\u6700\u3082\u6df1\u523b\u306a\u9069\u5408\u4e0d\u8db3\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3057\u304b\u30c6\u30fc\u30e9\u30fc\u30e1\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306b\u9069\u5408\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306b\u898b\u3048\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5927\u304d\u306a\u5024\u306f\u5206\u96e2\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u307e\u305f\u306f\u5b66\u7fd2\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u3092\u88dc\u6b63\u3057\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u306f\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u9069\u5408\u4e0d\u8db3\u306e\u7dcf\u91cf\u3092\u691c\u51fa\u3059\u308b\u4e00\u65b9\u3067\uff0c\u5143\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u958b\u767a\u3059\u308b\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u304b\u3089\u306e\u898b\u304b\u3051\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306f\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u3092\u5b9a\u91cf\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306f\u5f93\u308f\u306a\u3044\uff0e6 \u7ae0\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u306f\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u8ff0\u3079\u308b\u6307\u6a19\u304c\u3044\u304b\u306b\u3057\u3066\u691c\u8a3c\u6280\u8853\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u76f8\u5f53\u306b\u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u304b\u3092\u8b70\u8ad6\u3059\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<h4>5.1. \u4e00\u822c\u6982\u5ff5<\/h4>\n<p>\u3000\u6700\u3082\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306a\u4e8b\u4f8b\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u306f\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u53cd\u5fdc\u304c\u9023\u7d9a\u5909\u6570\u3067\u3042\u308a\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u6e2c\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u6642\uff0c\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u88ab\u9a13\u8005\u304c\u95a2\u5fc3\u306e\u3042\u308b\u8ee2\u5e30\u3092\u53d6\u308b\u524d\u306b\u7d4c\u904e\u89b3\u5bdf\u3092\u7d42\u4e86\u3059\u308b\u6253\u5207\u3068\u306f\u7570\u306a\u308b\u6642\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u306b\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306f\u63a8\u5b9a\u91cf\u306e <em>\u671f\u5f85\u4e8c\u4e57\u8aa4\u5dee<\/em> \u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u306e\u91cf\u306f\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u306a\u56de\u6570\u306e\u8a66\u884c\u304c\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3055\u308c\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u90fd\u5ea6\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u304c\u751f\u6210\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306a\u3089\uff0c\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u3068\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u306e\u81ea\u4e57\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u5024\uff0c\u3064\u307e\u308a\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5e73\u65b9\u5dee\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u4e8c\u4e57\u8aa4\u5dee\u306f\u307e\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u91cf\u306e <em>\u504f\u308a<\/em> \u3068\u63a8\u5b9a\u91cf\u306e <em>\u5206\u6563<\/em> \u306e\u548c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u8868\u73fe\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u3053\u3067\u504f\u308a\u306f\u63a8\u5b9a\u91cf\u3068\u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u91cf\u306e\u5dee\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u5e73\u5747\u8840\u5727\u306a\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\uff0e\u671f\u5f85\u4e8c\u4e57\u8aa4\u5dee\u306f\u901a\u5e38\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5e73\u65b9\u8aa4\u5dee\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5b9f\u8df5\u3067\u63a8\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u8981\u7d20\u3092\u8a18\u8ff0\u3059\u308b\u306b\u3042\u305f\u308a\uff0c\u4ed6\u306b\u4e8c\u3064\u306e\u9805\u76ee\u304c\u3042\u308b\uff0e<em>\u8f03\u6b63<\/em> \u3068 <em>\u5224\u5225<\/em> \u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u8f03\u6b63\u306f\u504f\u308a\u306e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3092\u6307\u3059\uff0e\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\uff0c\u540c\u69d8\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u7fa4\u306e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u304c 0.3 \u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u304c 0.3 \u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u3088\u304f\u8f03\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\uff0e\u5224\u5225\u3068\u306f\u60a3\u8005\u3092\u7570\u306a\u308b\u53cd\u5fdc\u306b\u5206\u96e2\u3059\u308b\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u529b\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3042\u308b\u6c17\u8c61\u4e88\u5831\u58eb\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5e74\u306e\u6bce\u65e5\u306e\u96e8\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3092 0.15 \u3068\u4e88\u5831\u3057\u305f\u3089\uff0c\u7279\u5b9a\u306e\u5730\u57df\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u5e74\u9593\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u964d\u96e8\u65e5\u6570\u304c 55 \u65e5\u306a\u3089\u3088\u304f\u8f03\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3082\u77e5\u308c\u306a\u3044\u304c\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u5831\u58eb\u306f\u5f79\u306b\u7acb\u305f\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u5224\u5225\u3067\u304d\u308b\u4e88\u5831\u58eb\u3068\u306f\u4e88\u5831\u306e\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u5e83\u304f\u5272\u308a\u4ed8\u3051\u3089\u308c\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u96e8\u306e\u964d\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4e88\u5831\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u304c\u6674\u308c\u306e\u65e5\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5927\u304d\u3044\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u4eee\u306b\u5224\u5225\u306e\u8ca7\u5f31\u306a\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306a\u3089\uff0c\u8abf\u6574\u3084\u8f03\u6b63\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5168\u304f\u88dc\u6b63\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u3057\u304b\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\uff0c\u5224\u5225\u304c\u826f\u3051\u308c\u3070\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u56e0\u5b50\u306f\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u529b\u3092\u72a0\u7272\u306b\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306a\u304f\u8f03\u6b63\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u8ffd\u52a0\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306a\u3057\u3067\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u8f03\u6b63\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f 6 \u7ae0\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u306e\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u3053\u3053\u3067\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u8f03\u6b63\u3068\u306f\uff0c\u305d\u308c\u3089\u3092\u4fee\u98fe\u3057\uff0c\u305d\u308c\u3089\u306e\u9806\u4f4d\u3092\u5909\u66f4\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306a\u304f\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u8f03\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\uff0evan Houwelingen \u304a\u3088\u3073 Cessie \u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u3068\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u691c\u8a3c\u306e\u8ffd\u52a0\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<h4>5.2. \u9023\u7d9a\u975e\u6253\u5207\u4f8b\u306e\u8ee2\u5e30<\/h4>\n<p>\u3000\u5224\u5225\u306f\u671f\u5f85\u81ea\u4e57\u8aa4\u5dee\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3057\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u89b3\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u53cd\u5fdc\u3068\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u901a\u5e38\u306e\u91cd\u56de\u5e30\u5206\u6790\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u306f\uff0c\u5224\u5225\u306f\u91cd\u56de\u5e30\u4fc2\u6570 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=R%5E2&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='R^2' title='R^2' class='latex' \/> \u306b\u3088\u308a\u8a08\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff0e\u305d\u306e\u5b9a\u7fa9\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p><img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=+R%5E2+%3D+1+-+%28n+-+p%29MSE%2F%28n+-+1%29S%5E2_%5Cgamma+%5Ccdots+%281%29&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt=' R^2 = 1 - (n - p)MSE\/(n - 1)S^2_\\gamma \\cdots (1)' title=' R^2 = 1 - (n - p)MSE\/(n - 1)S^2_\\gamma \\cdots (1)' class='latex' \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067 <em>n<\/em> \u306f\u60a3\u8005\u6570\uff0c<em>p<\/em> \u306f\u63a8\u5b9a\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u6570\uff0c<em>MSE<\/em> \u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u81ea\u4e57\u8aa4\u5dee <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Csum%5En_%7Bi+%3D+1%7D%28Y_i+-+%5Chat%7BY%7D_i%29%5E2%2F%28n+-+p%29%2C%5C+%5Chat%7BY%7D+%3D+prediced%5C+Y&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\sum^n_{i = 1}(Y_i - \\hat{Y}_i)^2\/(n - p),\\ \\hat{Y} = prediced\\ Y' title='\\sum^n_{i = 1}(Y_i - \\hat{Y}_i)^2\/(n - p),\\ \\hat{Y} = prediced\\ Y' class='latex' \/>, <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=S%5E2_%7B%5Cgamma%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='S^2_{\\gamma}' title='S^2_{\\gamma}' class='latex' \/> \u306f\u5f93\u5c5e\u5909\u6570\u306e\u6a19\u672c\u5206\u6563\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=R%5E2+%3D+1&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='R^2 = 1' title='R^2 = 1' class='latex' \/> \u306e\u6642\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u5909\u6570\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u60a3\u8005\u3092\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u5206\u96e2\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\uff0c<img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=MSE+%3D+0&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='MSE = 0' title='MSE = 0' class='latex' \/> \u3068\u306a\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u9023\u7d9a\u3067\u6253\u5207\u306e\u306a\u3044\u53cd\u5fdc <em>Y<\/em> \u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\uff0c\u8f03\u6b63\u306f <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Chat%7BY%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\hat{Y}' title='\\hat{Y}' class='latex' \/> \uff08\u4e88\u6e2c Y \u5024\uff09\u3068 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=Y&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='Y' title='Y' class='latex' \/> \u306e\u6563\u5e03\u56f3\u306b\u3088\u308a\u8a55\u4fa1\u3067\u304d\uff0c\u5fc5\u8981\u306b\u5fdc\u3058\u3066\u50be\u5411\u3092\u3088\u308a\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u30ce\u30f3\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u6cd5\u3092\u6ed1\u3089\u304b\u306b\u7528\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<h4>5.3. \u96e2\u6563\u7684\u307e\u305f\u306f\u6253\u5207\u306e\u8ee2\u5e30<\/h4>\n<p>\u3000\u8ee2\u5e30\u5909\u6570\u304c\u4e8c\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u5909\u6570\u304c\u3042\u308b\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u306e\u8d77\u304d\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8a18\u8ff0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5834\u5408\uff0c\u8f03\u6b63\u3068\u5224\u5225\u306f\u671f\u5f85\u81ea\u4e57\u8aa4\u5dee\u3088\u308a\u3082\u591a\u304f\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u6709\u3059\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u8f03\u6b63\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u306e\u4e00\u3064\u306f\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u30b5\u30d6\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u3092\u4f5c\u308a\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3068\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u504f\u308a\u3092\u8abf\u3079\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e 29 \u306e 140-145 \u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u3092\u53c2\u7167\u306e\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u78ba\u7387\u306b\u3088\u308a\u5341\u7b49\u5206\u3057\uff0c\u5341\u7b49\u5206\u3057\u305f\u5404\u7fa4\u3067\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u5e73\u5747\u53cd\u5fdc\uff08\u8ee2\u5e30\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5272\u5408\uff09\u3092\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u3059\u308c\u3070\u826f\u3044\uff0e\u3057\u304b\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u7fa4\u5225\u306f\u304b\u306a\u308a\u4efb\u610f\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u4ed6\u306e\u65b9\u6cd5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f &#8216;super smoother&#8217; \u3084 &#8216;scatterplot smoother&#8217; \u306a\u3069\u306e\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u3092\u7528\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Chat%7BY%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\hat{Y}' title='\\hat{Y}' class='latex' \/> \u3068 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=Y&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='Y' title='Y' class='latex' \/> \u3068\u306e\u9593\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u306e\u30ce\u30f3\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u63a8\u5b9a\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u306f Y \u304c\u4e8c\u5024\u306e\u6642\u3067\u3082\u3088\u304f\u50cd\u304f\uff0e\u305d\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u306e\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u6a5f\u80fd\u306f\u30ce\u30f3\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306a\u8f03\u6b63\u307e\u305f\u306f\u4fe1\u983c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u66f2\u7dda\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u306f\u751f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%28%5Chat%7BY%7D%2C%5C+Y%29&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='(\\hat{Y},\\ Y)' title='(\\hat{Y},\\ Y)' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u51e6\u7406\u3057 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Chat%7BY%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\hat{Y}' title='\\hat{Y}' class='latex' \/> \u306e\u7fa4\u5225\u3092\u8981\u3057\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u3057\u304b\u3057\u4e00\u3064\u306e\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u9078\u629e\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u7fa4\u5225\u307e\u305f\u306f\u5e2f\u57df\u5e45\u3092\u8981\u3059\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u4e00\u3064\u306e\u4f8b\u3068\u3057\u3066 7 \u5909\u6570\u306e\u4e8c\u5024\u30ed\u30b8\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u56de\u5e30\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u3088\u3046\uff0e\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7565\uff09<\/p>\n<h4>5.4. \u7e2e\u5c0f\u63a8\u5b9a<\/h4>\n<p>\u3000<em>\u7e2e\u5c0f\u63a8\u5b9a<\/em> \u3068\u306f\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u306b\u8d77\u56e0\u3059\u308b 45 &deg; \u7dda\u304b\u3089\u96e2\u308c\u305f\uff08\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\uff0c\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\uff09\u306e\u6563\u5e03\u56f3\u3092\u5e73\u5766\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u305d\u308c\u306f\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3078\u306e\u56de\u5e30\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3059\u308b\u6982\u5ff5\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\uff08\u5916\u90e8\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u3088\u308a\uff09\u7e2e\u5c0f\u3059\u308b\u5b58\u5728\u306e\u91cf\u3084\uff0c\uff08\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6cd5\u3084\u30af\u30ed\u30b9\u30d0\u30ea\u30c7\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u30b7\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306a\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30ea\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u6cd5\u306b\u3088\u308a\uff09\u5b58\u5728\u3057\u305d\u3046\u306a\u91cf\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e\u7e2e\u5c0f\u4fc2\u6570\u306f\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u306e\u5b9a\u91cf\u3084\uff0c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u518d\u8f03\u6b63\u3059\u308b\u4fc2\u6570\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u66f4\u306b\u4e00\u6b69\u5148\u3092\u884c\u304f\u305f\u3081\u306b\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\uff0e\u7e2e\u5c0f\u63a8\u5b9a\u306f\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff0e\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061\uff0c <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=X%5Chat%7B%5Cbeta%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='X\\hat{\\beta}' title='X\\hat{\\beta}' class='latex' \/> \uff08\u5207\u7247\u3092\u9664\u304f\uff09\u306e\u4e57\u6570 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Cgamma&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\gamma' title='\\gamma' class='latex' \/> \u3067\u3042\u308a <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Cgamma+X%5Chat%7B%5Cbeta%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\gamma X\\hat{\\beta}' title='\\gamma X\\hat{\\beta}' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u5099\u3048\u3066\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u8f03\u6b63\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0evan Houwelingen \u304a\u3088\u3073 Cessie \u306b\u3088\u308b\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30ea\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u7e2e\u5c0f\u63a8\u5b9a\u91cf\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u5f0f\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e 40 \u3092\u53c2\u7167\u306e\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/p>\n<p><img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Cdisplaystyle+%5Chat%7B%5Cgamma%7D+%3D+%5Cfrac%7Bmodel%5C+%5Cchi%5E2+-+p%7D%7Bmodel%5C+%5Cchi%5E2%7D+%5Ccdots+%282%29&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\displaystyle \\hat{\\gamma} = \\frac{model\\ \\chi^2 - p}{model\\ \\chi^2} \\cdots (2)' title='\\displaystyle \\hat{\\gamma} = \\frac{model\\ \\chi^2 - p}{model\\ \\chi^2} \\cdots (2)' class='latex' \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=p&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='p' title='p' class='latex' \/> \u306f\u56de\u5e30\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\u6570\uff08\u3053\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3044\u304b\u306a\u308b\u5207\u7247\u3082\u9664\u304b\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\u5168\u3066\u306e\u975e\u7dda\u5f62\u304a\u3088\u3073\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3092\u542b\u3081\u308b\uff09\u3068\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Cchi%5E2&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\chi^2' title='\\chi^2' class='latex' \/> \u306f\uff08<img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=p&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='p' title='p' class='latex' \/> \u500b\u306e\u30d1\u30e9\u30e1\u30fc\u30bf\u5168\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u305f\uff09\u7dcf\u5c24\u5ea6\u6bd4 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Cchi%5E2&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\chi^2' title='\\chi^2' class='latex' \/> \u7d71\u8a08\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u3044\u304b\u306a\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u56e0\u5b50\u304c <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=Y&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='Y' title='Y' class='latex' \/> \u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3059\u308b\u304b\u3092\u30c6\u30b9\u30c8\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u7dda\u5f62\u56de\u5e30\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\uff0cvan Houwelingen \u304a\u3088\u3073 Cessie \u306e\u30d2\u30e5\u30fc\u30ea\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30c3\u30af\u7e2e\u5c0f\u63a8\u5b9a\u91cf\u306f\uff0c\u8abf\u6574\u6e08\u307f <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=R%5E2&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='R^2' title='R^2' class='latex' \/> \u306e\u901a\u5e38\u306e <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=R%5E2&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='R^2' title='R^2' class='latex' \/> \u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u6bd4\u3092\u524a\u6e1b\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e 34 \u3092\u53c2\u7167\u306e\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u4e2d\u7565\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6cd5\u3068\u30af\u30ed\u30b9\u30d0\u30ea\u30c7\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u6cd5\u3082\u307e\u305f\u7e2e\u5c0f\u56e0\u5b50\u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u306b\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\uff0e\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\uff0c\u7e2e\u5c0f\u63a8\u5b9a\u91cf\u306f\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u306e\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u5b9a\u91cf\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u6709\u7528\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Chat%7By%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\hat{y}' title='\\hat{y}' class='latex' \/> \u306b\u3088\u308b\u5168\u3066\u306e\u56de\u5e30\u4fc2\u6570\u3092\u4e57\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u300e\u50be\u3051\u3066\u300f\uff08\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\uff0c\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\uff09\u306e\u70b9\u3092 45 &deg; \u7dda\u306b\u8f09\u305b\u308b\u306e\u306b\u6709\u7528\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3057\u304b\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\uff0c\u5f8c\u8005\u306e\u7528\u6cd5\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u306f\uff0c\u7f70\u5247\u4ed8\u304d\u6700\u5c24\u63a8\u5b9a\u306a\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\uff0c\u3088\u308a\u53b3\u683c\u306a\u9069\u7528\u306b\u5f93\u3063\u305f\u307b\u3046\u304c\u826f\u3044\uff0e\u305d\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u89e3\u6790\u8005\u306f\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u4ed6\u306e\u90e8\u5206\u3088\u308a\u7570\u306a\u308b\u90e8\u5206\uff08\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u975e\u7dda\u5f62\u9805\u3084\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u9805\uff09\u3092\u7e2e\u5c0f\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<h4>5.5. \u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u8b58\u5225\u6307\u6a19<\/h4>\n<p>\u3000\u5224\u5225\u306f\u8f03\u6b63\u3088\u308a\u3082\u3063\u3068\u30e6\u30cb\u30fc\u30af\u306b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e\u30b5\u30d6\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u5f62\u6210\u3092\u8981\u6c42\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3084\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u3092\u8981\u6c42\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306a\u3057\u306b\u76f8\u95a2\u3092\u8a08\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u5b9a\u91cf\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u30002 \u5024\u306e\u5f93\u5c5e\u5909\u6570\u3084\u9023\u7d9a\u5909\u6570\uff0c\u6642\u306b\u95a2\u5fc3\u306e\u3042\u308b\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u7d4c\u9a13\u305b\u305a\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u6253\u5207\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3060\u304c\uff0c\u3092\u53d6\u308a\u6271\u3046\u969b\u306b\u306f\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3092\u4e8c\u4e57\u3057\u305f\u8aa4\u5dee\u578b\u306e\u6e2c\u5b9a\u306f\u9069\u7528\u3055\u308c\u306a\u3044\uff0e<em>c<\/em> index (<em>concordance<\/em> index) \u304c\u5e83\u304f\u9069\u7528\u3055\u308c\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u5224\u5b9a\u3092\u8a08\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u901a\u5e38\u306e\u9023\u7d9a\u5909\u6570\uff0c\u4e8c\u5206\u6cd5\u306e\u8a3a\u65ad\u8ee2\u5e30\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u306e\u8ee2\u5e30\uff0c\u305d\u3057\u3066\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u53cd\u5fdc\u5909\u6570\u307e\u3067\u306e\u6253\u5207\u6642\u9593\u306b\u9069\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u5224\u5b9a\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u89b3\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u8ee2\u5e30\u306e\u9593\u306e\u9806\u4f4d\u76f8\u95a2\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u308c\u306f Kendall-Goodman-Kruskal-Somers \u578b\u306e\u9806\u4f4d\u76f8\u95a2\u30a4\u30f3\u30c7\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u306e\u5909\u6cd5\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0cKendall \u306e &tau; \u304c Brown \u3089\u304a\u3088\u3073 Schemper \u306b\u3088\u308a\u4fee\u6b63\u3055\u308c\u3066\u52d5\u6a5f\u3065\u3051\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u3000<em>c<\/em> index \u306f\u5168\u3066\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u30da\u30a2\u306e\u3046\u3061\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u8ee2\u5e30\u306e\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u305f\u5272\u5408\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff0e<em>c<\/em> index \u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u4e2d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u5909\u6570\u306e\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u304b\u3089\u7531\u6765\u3059\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u6e2c\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3068\u3082\u4e00\u4eba\u304c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3059\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u306b\u81f3\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306e\u6642\u9593\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\uff0c\u3042\u3089\u3086\u308b\u60a3\u8005\u30da\u30a2\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u3066 <em>c<\/em> \u306f\u8a08\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff0e\u751f\u5b58\u671f\u9593\u304c\u3088\u308a\u9577\u3044\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u60a3\u8005\u304c\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u3082\u9577\u304f\u751f\u5b58\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u30da\u30a2\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u8ee2\u5e30\u3068\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u305f\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u308b\uff0e\u4e00\u4eba\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u304c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3057\u3066\uff0c\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u4eba\u304c\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3068\u3082\u6700\u521d\u306e\u4e00\u4eba\u306e\u751f\u5b58\u671f\u9593\u307e\u3067\u751f\u5b58\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306f\uff0c\u4e8c\u4eba\u76ee\u306f\u4e00\u4eba\u76ee\u3088\u308a\u9577\u751f\u304d\u3057\u305f\u3068\u524d\u63d0\u3092\u7f6e\u304f\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u60a3\u8005\u30da\u30a2\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u751f\u5b58\u671f\u9593\u304c\u540c\u3058\u5834\u5408\u306f 1 \u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f 0.5 \u3092 <em>c<\/em> \u306e\u5206\u5b50\u3067\u3042\u308b\u4e00\u81f4\u30da\u30a2\u6570\u306b\u52a0\u3048\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u306e\u5834\u5408\uff0c<em>c<\/em> \u306e\u5206\u6bcd\u306b 1 \u3092\u52a0\u3048\u308b\uff0e\u305d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u60a3\u8005\u30da\u30a2\u3082\u4f7f\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u3068\u307f\u306a\u3059\uff0e\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u60a3\u8005\u30da\u30a2\u306f\u4f7f\u7528\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u3064\u307e\u308a\u4e21\u540d\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u3068\u3082\u540c\u6642\u306b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\uff0c\u307e\u305f\u7247\u65b9\u304c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3057\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u65b9\u304c\u751f\u5b58\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304c\uff0c\u751f\u5b58\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u65b9\u304c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3057\u305f\u65b9\u3088\u308a\u9577\u751f\u304d\u3059\u308b\u304b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306b\u5341\u5206\u306a\u6642\u9593\u304c\u7d4c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u3000<em>c<\/em> \u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u751f\u5b58\u671f\u9593\u3092\u7528\u3044\u308b\u4ee3\u308f\u308a\u306b\uff0c\u3042\u308b\u56fa\u5b9a\u6642\u9593\u306b\u81f3\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u751f\u5b58\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u540c\u7b49\u306b\u7528\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e\u5341\u5206\u306b\u9577\u3044\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u306f\u4e92\u3044\u306b\u4e00\u5bfe\u4e00\u306b\u6a5f\u80fd\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u308c\u306f\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u6bd4\u4f8b\u30cf\u30b6\u30fc\u30c9\u4eee\u5b9a\u304c\u6e80\u305f\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u3066\u3082\u4fdd\u6301\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u75be\u75c5\u306e\u6709\u7121\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a 2 \u5024\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u8ee2\u5e30\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f <em>c<\/em> \u306f\u60a3\u8005\u306e\u5168\u30da\u30a2\u306e\u5272\u5408\uff0c\u75be\u75c5\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u60a3\u8005\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u75be\u75c5\u306e\u6709\u7121\u306e\u5272\u5408\u3092\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3055\u305b\u308b\uff0e\u5f93\u6765\u901a\u308a\uff0c\u540c\u3058\u4e88\u6e2c\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u6301\u3064\u60a3\u8005\u30da\u30a2\u306e\u5834\u5408\uff0c\u5206\u5b50\u306b 0.5 \u3092\u52a0\u3048\u308b\uff0e\u5206\u6bcd\u306f\u75be\u75c5\u306e\u306a\u3044\u6570\u3092\u304b\u3051\u305f\u75be\u75c5\u306e\u3042\u308b\u60a3\u8005\u6570\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u306e 2 \u5024\u306e\u8ee2\u5e30\u306e\u5834\u5408\uff0c<em>c<\/em> \u306f\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u306b\u4e8c\u3064\u306e\u8ee2\u5e30\u7fa4\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3059\u308b Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney \u7d71\u8a08\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u53d7\u4fe1\u8005\u7279\u6027\u66f2\u7dda\u306e\u66f2\u7dda\u4e0b\u9762\u7a4d\u306b\u7b49\u3057\u3044\uff0eLiu \u3068 Dyer \u306f <em>c<\/em> indx \u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u9806\u4f4d\u76f8\u95a2\u6e2c\u5b9a\u3092\u75ab\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u56e0\u5b50\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u306e\u5b9a\u91cf\u306b\u7528\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3092\u652f\u6301\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u3000<em>c<\/em> index \u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u89b3\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u53cd\u5fdc\u3068\u306e\u9593\u306e\u4e00\u81f4\u7387\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u5024\u304c 0.5 \u306f\u5168\u304f\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\uff0c\u5024\u304c 1.0 \u306f\u60a3\u8005\u4e88\u5f8c\u304c\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u5206\u96e2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff0e\u7bc4\u56f2\u304c -1 \u304b\u3089 1 \u307e\u3067\u3067\u5024\u304c 0 \u306e\u969b\u306b\u306f\u7121\u76f8\u95a2\u306e\u9806\u4f4d\u76f8\u95a2\u4fc2\u6570\u306e\u4ee3\u308f\u308a\u306b\u597d\u3080\u4eba\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\uff0cSomers&#8217; <em>D<\/em> index \u304c\u63d0\u4f9b\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u5f0f\u306f <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=2%28c+-+0.5%29&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='2(c - 0.5)' title='2(c - 0.5)' class='latex' \/> \u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<em>c<\/em> index \u3067\u3042\u308c\u305d\u306e\u9806\u4f4d\u76f8\u95a2\u6307\u6a19\u3067\u3042\u308c\uff0c\u3044\u304b\u306a\u308b\u5b9a\u91cf\u7684\u4e88\u6e2c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u3082\uff0c\u3064\u307e\u308a\u53cd\u5fdc\u304c\u9023\u7d9a\uff0c\u9806\u4f4d\uff0c\u307e\u305f\u306f 2 \u5024\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\uff0c\u5b9a\u91cf\u5316\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u7528\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u3000<strong><em>c<\/em> index \u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u9806\u4f4d\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u5e83\u304f\u9069\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u5bb9\u6613\u306b\u89e3\u91c8\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3082\u306e\u306e\uff0c\u4e8c\u3064\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u9593\u306e\u5fae\u5c0f\u306a\u5dee\u7570\u3092\u8b58\u5225\u3059\u308b\u80fd\u529b\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u306f\u305d\u308c\u307b\u3069\u611f\u5ea6\u306f\u826f\u304f\u306a\u3044\uff0e<\/strong>\u3068\u8a00\u3046\u306e\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\uff08\u4e88\u6e2c\uff0c\u8ee2\u5e30\uff09\u306e\u30da\u30a2\u306e\u4f8b\u3092\u8003\u3048\u3066\u307f\u308c\u3070\u5206\u304b\u308b\uff0e\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061 (0.01, 0) \u3068 (0.9, 1) \u306e\u30da\u30a2\u306f (0.05, 0) \u3068 (0.8, 1) \u306e\u30da\u30a2\u3088\u308a\u3082\u4e00\u81f4\u7387\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u8a33\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u3082\u3063\u3068\u611f\u5ea6\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u5c24\u5ea6\u6bd4\u3068\u3057\u3066 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=%5Cchi%5E2&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='\\chi^2' title='\\chi^2' class='latex' \/> \u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u7d71\u8a08\u5024\u306f\u7dda\u5f62\u56de\u5e30\u4e8b\u4f8b\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=R%5E2&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='R^2' title='R^2' class='latex' \/> \u306b\u7e2e\u7d04\u3055\u308c\uff0c\u7f6e\u63db\u3055\u308c\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\uff0e<a href=\"\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.4780090503\/abstract\" target=\"_blank\">Korn \u3068 Simon<\/a> \u306f\u751f\u5b58\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u69d8\u3005\u306a\u6307\u6a19\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u826f\u3044\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u884c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n<h2>6. \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u691c\u8a3c\u65b9\u6cd5<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>n \u540d\u306e\u88ab\u9a13\u8005\u306e\u5168\u3066\u304a\u3088\u3073\u5fc5\u8981\u3068\u307f\u306a\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u30ef\u30a4\u30ba\u6cd5\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u958b\u767a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=D_%7Bapp%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='D_{app}' title='D_{app}' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304b\u3089\u306e\u660e\u767d\u306a <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='D' title='D' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u8a18\u8ff0\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3068\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u3059\u306a\u308f\u3061\uff0c\u540c\u3058\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u9069\u5408\u5ea6\u3092\u5c0e\u51fa\u3059\u308b\u9806\u4f4d\u76f8\u95a2\u306e\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5143\u306e\u6a19\u672c\u304b\u3089\uff08\u4e88\u6e2c\u56e0\u5b50\u3068\u53cd\u5fdc\u306e\u4e21\u8005\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306e\uff09\u6a19\u672c\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba n \u3092\u751f\u6210\u3059\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li><img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=D_%7Bapp%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='D_{app}' title='D_{app}' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u5c0e\u51fa\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3068\u540c\u3058\u505c\u6b62\u898f\u5247\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u30d5\u30eb\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u307e\u305f\u306f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306e\u3042\u308b\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u30ef\u30a4\u30ba\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u9069\u5408\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u660e\u767d\u306a <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='D' title='D' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u7f6e\u63db\u3059\u308b\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6a19\u672c\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u305d\u308c\u3092 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=D_%7Bboot%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='D_{boot}' title='D_{boot}' class='latex' \/> \u3068\u547c\u3076\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u3053\u306e\u7e2e\u7d04\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u300c\u30d5\u30ea\u30fc\u30ba\u300d\u3055\u305b\uff0c\u5143\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u3067\u6027\u80fd\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=D_%7Borig%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='D_{orig}' title='D_{orig}' class='latex' \/> \u3067 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='D' title='D' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u8a18\u8ff0\u3055\u305b\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6a19\u672c\u304b\u3089\u9069\u5408\u3059\u308b optimism \u306f [latex]D_{boot} - D_{orig}[\/latex] \u3068\u306a\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u4e0a\u8a18\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7 2 \u304b\u3089\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7 6 \u3092 100 \u56de\u304b\u3089 200 \u56de\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3059\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>Optimism \u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u304c 0 \u306b\u5230\u9054\u3059\u308b\u307e\u3067\u5e73\u5747\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5143\u306e\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u30ef\u30a4\u30ba\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6027\u80fd\u3092\u4fee\u6b63\u3057\u305f\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u306f <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=D_%7Bapp%7D+-+0&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='D_{app} - 0' title='D_{app} - 0' class='latex' \/> \u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u306e\u5dee\u7570\u306f <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=D_%7Bapp%7D&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='D_{app}' title='D_{app}' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u751f\u6210\u3057\u305f\u30d7\u30ed\u30bb\u30b9\u306e\u5916\u90e8\u4e88\u6e2c\u8b58\u5225\u306e <em>\u671f\u5f85\u5024<\/em> \u306e\u307b\u307c\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u306e\u306a\u3044\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol>\n<li>\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u5bfe\u8c61\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u958b\u767a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5404\u533a\u9593\u5185\u3067 m \u540d\u306e\u60a3\u8005\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a 2 \u5e74\u751f\u5b58\u7387\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u30ab\u30c3\u30c8\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\uff08\u5178\u578b\u7684\u306b\u306f 50 \u540d\u3068\u304b 100 \u540d\u3068\u304b\uff09\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u4e88\u6e2c\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u5404\u533a\u9593\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\uff0c\u5e73\u5747 2 \u5e74\u751f\u5b58\u7387\u304a\u3088\u3073\u30ab\u30d7\u30e9\u30f3\u30de\u30a4\u30e4\u30fc 2 \u5e74\u751f\u5b58\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3092\u7fa4\u5225\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u660e\u767d\u306a\u8aa4\u5dee\uff0c\u3064\u307e\u308a\u4e88\u6e2c\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3068\u30ab\u30d7\u30e9\u30f3\u30de\u30a4\u30e4\u30fc\u751f\u5b58\u3068\u306e\u9593\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u3092\u4fdd\u5b58\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5143\u306e\u6a19\u672c\u304b\u3089\u7f6e\u63db\u3057\u3066\u6a19\u672c\u3092\u751f\u6210\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u30d5\u30eb\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u9069\u5408\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5909\u6570\u9078\u629e\u3092\u884c\u3044\u7e2e\u7d04\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u9069\u5408\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6a19\u672c\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u5404\u60a3\u8005\u3054\u3068\u306b 2 \u5e74\u751f\u5b58\u7387\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u4ee5\u524d\u9078\u629e\u3057\u305f\u30ab\u30c3\u30c8\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u533a\u9593\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3092\u5c64\u5225\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5404\u533a\u9593\u306e 2 \u5e74\u76ee\u306e\u30ab\u30d7\u30e9\u30f3\u30de\u30a4\u30e4\u30fc\u751f\u5b58\u7387\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5404\u533a\u9593\u5185\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3068\u540c\u3058\u533a\u9593\u5185\u306e\u30ab\u30d7\u30e9\u30f3\u30de\u30a4\u30e4\u30fc\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3068\u306e\u5dee\u7570\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u7f6e\u63db\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6a19\u672c\u3067\u767a\u5c55\u3055\u305b\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u5143\u306e\u6a19\u672c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u5404\u60a3\u8005\u306e 2 \u5e74\u751f\u5b58\u7387\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u4ee5\u524d\u7528\u3044\u305f\u540c\u3058\u30ab\u30c3\u30c8\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\uff0c\u5143\u306e\u6a19\u672c\u3067\u306e\u5404\u7fa4\u3067 2 \u5e74\u751f\u5b58\u7387\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3068\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3059\u308b\u30ab\u30d7\u30e9\u30f3\u30de\u30a4\u30e4\u30fc\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3068\u306e\u5dee\u7570\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6a19\u672c\u3068\u5143\u306e\u6a19\u672c\u3068\u306e\u5dee\u7570\u306e\u5dee\u7570\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7 5 \u304b\u3089\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7 14 \u3092 100 \u56de\u304b\u3089 200 \u56de\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3059\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7 14 \u3067\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6a19\u672c\u3092 100 \u56de\u304b\u3089 200 \u56de\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u305f\u300c\u4e8c\u91cd\u306e\u5dee\u7570\u300d\u3092\u5e73\u5747\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306f\u660e\u767d\u306a\u8aa4\u5dee\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b over-optimism \u306e\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e over-optimism \u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3092\u5143\u306e\u6a19\u672c\u306e\u660e\u767d\u306a\u8aa4\u5dee\u306b\u52a0\u3048\uff0c\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u3092\u88dc\u6b63\u3057\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u3092\u5f97\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u305d\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u89b3\u5bdf\u306b\u3088\u308b\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u3092\u88dc\u6b63\u3057\u305f\u63a8\u5b9a\u5024\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\uff0e\u3064\u307e\u308a\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u3084\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u3092\u88dc\u6b63\u3057\u305f\u8f03\u6b63\u66f2\u7dda\u3092\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>7. \u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u6226\u7565\u306e\u6982\u8981<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>\u6b63\u78ba\u3067\u9069\u5207\u3067\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u9650\u308a\u591a\u6570\u306e\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u7acb\u3066\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u751f\u5b58\u671f\u9593\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\uff0c\u6162\u6027\u75be\u60a3\u3092\u6271\u3046\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306f\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u306b\u610f\u5473\u306e\u3042\u308b\u6bb5\u968e\u306e\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u5341\u5206\u306b\u88dc\u8db3\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u7d4c\u904e\u89b3\u5bdf\u671f\u9593\u304c\u5341\u5206\u3067\u306a\u304f\u3066\u306f\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u8a72\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u5019\u88dc\u4e88\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u95a2\u4fc2\u306e\u5f62\u5f0f\u304a\u3088\u3073\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u306e\u4ed5\u69d8\u306b\u81f3\u308b\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30ab\u30b9\u3057\u305f\u81e8\u5e8a\u4eee\u8aac\u3092\u5b9a\u5f0f\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u7121\u4f5c\u70ba\u306b\u6b20\u640d\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u7279\u5fb4\u3065\u3051\u3089\u308c\u305f\u5f8c\u306e\u6b20\u640d\u3057\u305f <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=Y&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='Y' title='Y' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u6709\u3059\u308b\u89b3\u5bdf\u306f\u6368\u3066\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e 62 \u306b\u306f\u7121\u4f5c\u70ba\u306b\u6b20\u640d\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u6642\u306e <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=Y&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='Y' title='Y' class='latex' \/> \u306e\u88dc\u5b8c\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li><img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=Xs&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='Xs' title='Xs' class='latex' \/> \u304c\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u6b20\u640d\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\uff0c\u6b20\u6e2c\u3068\u95a2\u9023\u3059\u308b\u56e0\u5b50\u3092\u89e3\u6790\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u6b20\u640d\u5024\u306b\u3088\u308a\u9664\u5916\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u89b3\u6e2c\u306e\u5272\u5408\u304c\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u306a\u3089\uff0c\u307e\u305f\u306f\u6642\u306b\u6b20\u640d\u3059\u308b\u5909\u6570\u304c\u6700\u512a\u5148\u306e\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3092\u6301\u3064\u306a\u3089\uff0c\u6b20\u640d\u5024\u3092\u6301\u3064\u89b3\u6e2c\u3092\u9664\u5916\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u305d\u3046\u3067\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\uff0c\u6b20\u640d\u306e\u7406\u7531\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u305f\u500b\u5225\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7528\u3044\u308b\u6b20\u640d\u306e <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=Xs&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='Xs' title='Xs' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u8ee2\u5ac1\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\uff08\u975e\u7dda\u5f62\u304a\u3088\u3073\u5916\u7a4d\u6761\u4ef6\u3092\u6570\u3048\u308b\uff09\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u904e\u7a0b\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\uff0c\u30b5\u30f3\u30d7\u30eb\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u8ee2\u5e30\u306e\u6570\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u3066\u9069\u5408\u307e\u305f\u306f\u691c\u8a3c\u3059\u308b\u9805\u76ee\u306e\u6570\u304c\u591a\u3059\u304e\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306b\u306f\uff0c\u56de\u5e30\u4fc2\u6570\u3092\u8981\u3059\u308b\u6b8b\u5b58\u81ea\u7531\u5909\u6570\u306e\u6570\u304c\u8a31\u5bb9\u3067\u304d\u308b\u307e\u3067\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u7e2e\u6e1b\uff08<img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex=Y&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='Y' title='Y' class='latex' \/> \u3092\u7121\u8996\uff09\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u7e2e\u5c0f\uff08\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\uff09\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\uff0c\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u7e2e\u7d04\u304c\u9069\u5207\u304b\u3092\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u969b\u306b\u5f79\u7acb\u3064\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff0e\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u9069\u5408\u306b\u7e2e\u5c0f\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u6d6a\u8cbb\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u3042\u307e\u308a\u306b\u3082\u8cb4\u91cd\u306a\u306e\u3067\uff0c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u69cb\u7bc9\u306b\u306f\u5168\u6a19\u672c\u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u4e0b\u8a18\u306e\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u304c\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u3084\u30af\u30ed\u30b9\u30d0\u30ea\u30c7\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u56f0\u96e3\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\uff0c\u4e0b\u8a18\u306e\u5168\u3066\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u958b\u767a\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u306b\u30c6\u30b9\u30c8\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5dee\u3057\u51fa\u3059\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u7dda\u5f62\u6027\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\uff0c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u3089\u5909\u6570\u5909\u63db\u3092\u65bd\u3059\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u52a0\u6cd5\u6027\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\uff0c\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u306b\u610f\u6b32\u7684\u306a\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u9805\u3092\u52a0\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u904e\u5ea6\u306b\u5f71\u97ff\u306e\u3042\u308b\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u5426\u304b\u898b\u3066\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u305d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\u306f\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\uff0c\u3064\u307e\u308a\u9ad8\u5ea6\u306b\u504f\u3063\u305f\u5909\u6570\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u306e\u5207\u308a\u6368\u3066\u306e\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u304b\uff0c\u307e\u305f\u306f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u8aa4\u5dee\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u4eee\u5b9a\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3057\uff0c\u5fc5\u8981\u306a\u3089\u7570\u306a\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u9078\u629e\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\uff08Cox \u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u6bd4\u4f8b\u30cf\u30b6\u30fc\u30c9\u6027\u306b\u9055\u53cd\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u5c64\u5225\u5316\u3084\u6642\u9593\u4f9d\u5b58\u6027\u5909\u6570\u304c\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u5909\u6570\u9078\u629e\u306e\u5f8c\u65b9\u5236\u7d04\u3092\u884c\u3046\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u30ef\u30a4\u30ba\u6cd5\u306f\u904e\u5270\u9069\u5408\u3092\u771f\u306baddress\u305b\u305a\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u640d\u5931\u306b\u81f3\u308b\u305f\u3081\uff0c\u30d5\u30eb\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u9069\u5408\u304c\uff08\u3064\u307e\u308aP \u5024\u306b\u95a2\u4fc2\u306a\u3044\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u5168\u3066\u306e\u4eee\u8aac\u5909\u6570\u3092\u6b8b\u3059\uff09\uff0c\u6709\u610f\u6027\u306e\u6307\u6a19\u306e\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30fc\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0\u5f8c\u306e\u9069\u5408\u3088\u308a\u3082\uff0c\u3057\u3070\u3057\u3070\u3088\u308a\u7279\u7570\u7684\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e\u305d\u308c\u3089\u306f\u307e\u305f\u9069\u5207\u306a\u9069\u7528\u7bc4\u56f2\u3092\u6301\u3064\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u30ef\u30a4\u30ba\u51e6\u7406\u3092\u7528\u3044\u3066\u7e2e\u6e1b\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306f\u72ed\u3044\u306e\u306f\u507d\u308a\u3067\u3042\u308b\u304c\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u306f\u7570\u306a\u308b\uff0e\u4eee\u306b\u305d\u308c\u3089\u306e\u5168 <img src='https:\/\/s0.wp.com\/latex.php?latex&#038;bg=T&#038;fg=000000&#038;s=0' alt='' title='' class='latex' \/>\\chi^2 < 2 \\times d.f.[\/latex] \u306a\u3089\u305d\u308c\u3089\u3092\u524a\u9664\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\uff0c\u59a5\u5354\u306f\u4e88\u3081\u6307\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6307\u6a19\u306e\u30b5\u30d6\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u30c6\u30b9\u30c8\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff0e\u4eee\u306b\u305d\u306e [latex]\\chi^2[\/latex] \u304c\u5c0f\u3055\u3044\u306a\u3089\u305d\u306e\u30b5\u30d6\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u306f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u6b63\u78ba\u6027\u3092\u6539\u5584\u3057\u306a\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u300e\u6700\u7d42\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300f\u3068\u306a\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u8f03\u6b63\u304a\u3088\u3073\u8b58\u5225\u80fd\u529b\u306e\u305f\u3081\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u691c\u8a3c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6cd5\u3092\u7528\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304c\u671b\u307e\u3057\u3044\uff0e\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d77\u304b\u3089\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d711\u307e\u3067\u3092\u5404\u3005\u306e\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6a19\u672c\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u7e70\u308a\u8fd4\u3055\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u3082\u3057\u5e74\u9f62\u304c\u6700\u7d42\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u69cb\u7bc9\u306e\u969b\u306b\u5909\u63db\u3055\u308c\u305f\u306a\u3089\uff0c\u305d\u3057\u3066\u305d\u306e\u5909\u63db\u304c\u5e74\u9f62\u3068\u5e74\u9f62\u3068\u306b\u95a2\u9023\u3059\u308b\u9069\u5408\u306b\u7528\u3044\u308b\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u793a\u5506\u3055\u308c\u305f\u306a\u3089\uff0c\u5404\u3005\u306e\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u53cd\u5fa9\u306f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306e\u3042\u308b\uff0c\u5404\u6bb5\u968e\u306b\u304a\u3044\u30662\u6b21\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u304b\u3089\u7dda\u5f62\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u81ea\u52d5\u6709\u610f\u6027\u691c\u5b9a\u3078\u306e\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u3092\u4f34\u3046\u5e74\u9f62\u5909\u6570\u306e\u4e21\u8005\u3092\u542b\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u4eee\u306b\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u30ef\u30a4\u30ba\u5909\u6570\u9078\u629e\u3092\u884c\u3046\u306a\u3089\u8981\u7d04\u8868\u3092\u63d0\u793a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u8981\u7d04\u8868\u306b\u306f\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6cd5\u3084\u30af\u30ed\u30b9\u30d0\u30ea\u30c7\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u6cd5\u3067\u9078\u629e\u3057\u305f\u300e\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u56e0\u5b50\u300f\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u306e\u5909\u52d5\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff0e\u3053\u308c\u306f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u7531\u6765\u306e\u5909\u6570\u9078\u629e\u304c\u306a\u305c\u672c\u8cea\u7684\u306b\u66d6\u6627\u306a\u306e\u304b\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306b\u512a\u308c\u305f\u30c4\u30fc\u30eb\u3067\u3042\u308b\uff0e<\/li>\n<li>\u4e88\u6e2c\u5f0f\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u4fc2\u6570\u306e\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u50be\u659c\u3092\uff0c\u6570\u5f0f (2) \u3092\u4f7f\u3046\u304b\u307e\u305f\u306f\u30d6\u30fc\u30c8\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c3\u30d7\u6cd5\u3067\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304b\u3089\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u7e2e\u7d04\u3092\u63a8\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u7e2e\u7d04\u304c\u5185\u8535\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u9650\u308a\u4e88\u6e2c\u5f0f\u3092\u7e2e\u7d04\u3059\u308b\u3088\u3046\u8003\u616e\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\uff0e\u305d\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u8f03\u6b63\u304c\u6539\u5584\u3059\u308b\uff0e\u305d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\uff0c\u4e88\u6e2c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387 0.4 \u306f\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u60a3\u8005\u30b7\u30ea\u30fc\u30ba\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u691c\u8a3c\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3060\uff0e\u5e73\u5747\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u306e\u56de\u5e30\u306f 0.1 \u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3053\u308d\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u306f 0.2 \u306b\u904e\u304e\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3060\u304c\uff0e<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2>8. \u30bd\u30d5\u30c8\u30a6\u30a7\u30a2<\/h2>\n<h2>9. \u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u30b9\u30bf\u30c7\u30a3<\/h2>\n<h2>10. \u8981\u7d04<\/h2>\n<p>\u3000\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u591a\u5909\u91cf\u4e88\u5f8c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u958b\u767a\u3057\u305d\u306e\u8f03\u6b63\u3068\u8b58\u5225\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u624b\u6cd5\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8ff0\u3079\u305f\uff0e\u8a73\u7d30\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u4eee\u5b9a\u306e\u4f8b\u304a\u3088\u3073\u504f\u308a\u306e\u306a\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u306f\uff0c\u7d1b\u3089\u308f\u3057\u304f\u7121\u52b9\u306e\u81e8\u5e8a\u7684\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u4f5c\u308a\u51fa\u3059\u3088\u3046\u306a\u554f\u984c\u3092\u767a\u898b\u3059\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff0e7 \u7ae0\u306b\u793a\u3057\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u6226\u7565\u306f\u591a\u5909\u91cf\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u30d4\u30c3\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30eb\u3092\u907f\u3051\u308b\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u306e\u4e00\u3064\u3092\u63d0\u4f9b\u3057\uff0c\u305d\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u591a\u304f\u306e\u9032\u6b69\u304c\u78ba\u8a8d\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff0e<\/p>\n<p>\u53c2\u7167\uff1a<br \/>\n<a href=\"\/\/fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/?p=3913\" target=\"_blank\">\u591a\u5909\u91cf\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u8a55\u4fa1\u6cd5\u306ec-index\u3092EXCEL VBA\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3059\u308b<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"\/\/jama.jamanetwork.com\/article.aspx?articleid=372568\" title=\"Frank E. Harrell Jr, et al: Evaluating the Yield of Medical Tests. JAMA. 1982; 247 (18): 2543 \u2013 2546\" target=\"_blank\">Frank E. Harrell Jr, et al: Evaluating the Yield of Medical Tests. JAMA. 1982; 247 (18): 2543 \u2013 2546<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.4780090503\/abstract\" title=\"Measures of explained variation for survival data\" target=\"_blank\">Korn, E. L. and Simon, R. Measures of explained variation for survival data, Statistics in Medicine 9(5), 487\u2013503 (1990)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3000c index \u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u8a73\u7d30\u306a\u8ad6\u6587\u3092\u898b\u3064\u3051\u305f\u306e\u3067\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u306b\u8a33\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3059\uff0e\u592a\u5b57\u3067\u793a\u3057\u305f\u3088\u3046\u306b\uff0cc index \u306f\u4e8c\u3064\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u9593\u306e\u5fae\u5c0f\u306a\u5dee\u7570\u3092\u691c\u51fa\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u5411\u3044\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u8003\u6848\u8005\u81ea\u8eab\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u8a18\u8ff0\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\uff0eAIC \u306a\u3069 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/?p=3904\" class=\"more-link\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Tutorial in Biostatistics Multivariable Prognostic Models: Issues in Developing Models, Evaluating Assumptions and Adequacy, and Measuring and Reducing Errors&#8221; \u306e<\/span>\u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-statistics"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3904"}],"version-history":[{"count":68,"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3904\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7767,"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3904\/revisions\/7767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fujiitoshiki.com\/improvesociety\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}